Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC: prediction and stats
K League 1Regular Season - 28Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC)Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju
The Footlab model makes Jeju United FC the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Gwangju FC. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,735 vs 1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gwangju FC have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Jeju United FC have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Gangwon FC(away) | 2-2 | K League 1 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Incheon United(home) | 0-1 | K League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ulsan Citizen(away) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pohang Steelers(home) | 1-2 | K League 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bucheon FC 1995(away) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Pohang Steelers(home) | 1-2 | K League 1 |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC(home) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | FC Anyang(away) | 1-2 | FA Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Anyang(home) | 2-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors(away) | 3-1 | K League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Gwangju FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Jeju United FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Gwangju FC 1-2 Jeju United FC | K League 1 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Jeju United FC 0-0 Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Gwangju FC 2-0 Jeju United FC | K League 1 |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Jeju United FC 0-1 Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Jeju United FC 0-1 Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Gwangju FC 1-0 Jeju United FC | K League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gwangju FC score 0.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Jeju United FC score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | 0.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Jeju United FC | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gwangju FC sit 12th in K League 1 (12 points from 25 matches) and Jeju United FC sit 5th (35 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jeju United FC | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 35 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 25 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 52 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
- The Footlab model makes Jeju United FC the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Gwangju FC.
- Where and when is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC played?
- Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC is played on September 9, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC) at Gwangju Football Stadium, in the K League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.