Haiti vs USA: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Nations LeagueQuarter-finalsKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Stade Sylvio Cator, Port-au-Prince
The Footlab AI model makes USA the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Haiti. The most likely score is 1-1. If USA wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Haiti vs USA?
USA starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,749 vs 1,645).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Haiti vs USA
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Haiti
4-2-3-1- 18W. Isidor
- 17D. Jean-Jacques
- 11L. Deedson
- 7F. Picault
- 6C. Sainté
- 15R. Providence
- 2C. Arcus
- 5H. Delcroix
- 8M. Expérience
- 22J. Duverne
- 1A. Pierre
USA
4-2-3-1- 22Justin Ellis
- 7G. Reyna
- 17M. Tillman
- 15B. Raines
- 10Y. Musah
- 14S. Berhalter
- 16A. Freeman
- 6A. Trusty
- 3C. Richards
- 18G. Campbell
- 28B. Schwake
Known absences
C. RoldanOut · Muscle injury
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 08:17 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Haiti have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; USA have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Costa Rica(away) | 0-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dominican Republic(away) | 4-1 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Costa Rica(home) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Trinidad and Tobago(home) | 3-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 2-4 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Canada(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Mexico(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Chile(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Peru(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Belgium(home) | 1-4 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Haiti wins, 0 draws, 3 USA wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2025 | USA 2-1 Haiti | CONCACAF Gold Cup |
| Jul 12, 2021 | USA 1-0 Haiti | CONCACAF Gold Cup |
| Jul 11, 2015 | USA 1-0 Haiti | CONCACAF Gold Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Haiti score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; USA score 2.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haiti | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| USA | 2.4 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Haiti vs USA?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Haiti vs USA?
- The Footlab AI model makes USA the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Haiti.
- Where and when is Haiti vs USA played?
- Haiti vs USA is played on November 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Sylvio Cator, in the CONCACAF Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.