Guatemala vs Canada: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Nations LeagueQuarter-finalsKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Q2 Stadium, Austin, Texas
The Footlab AI model makes Canada the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Guatemala. The most likely score is 1-1. If Canada wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guatemala vs Canada?
Canada starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,729 vs 1,606).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guatemala vs Canada
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guatemala
4-4-2- 14D. Lom
- 9R. Rubín
- 5J. Rosales
- 19W. Fajardo
- 23J. Aparicio
- 22J. Franco
- 16J. Morales
- 3N. Samayoa
- 7A. Herrera
- 15A. Yanes
- 1N. Hagen
Canada
4-4-2- 10J. David
- 12T. Oluwaseyi
- 25N. Saliba
- 14J. Shaffelburg
- 7S. Eustáquio
- 11L. Millar
- 4L. De Fougerolles
- 23N. Sigur
- 3R. Priso
- 22R. Laryea
- 1D. St. Clair
Known absences
I. KonéOut · Fracture
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 07:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guatemala have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Canada have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Suriname(home) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Suriname(away) | 0-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | El Salvador(home) | 6-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Jamaica(away) | 2-3 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ecuador(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | USA(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Peru(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Chile(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Morocco(home) | 0-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 28, 2026 | South Africa(away) | 1-0 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Guatemala wins, 2 draws, 1 Canada win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Canada 1-0 Guatemala | Friendlies |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Canada 1-1 Guatemala | CONCACAF Gold Cup |
| Jul 2, 2023 | Guatemala 0-0 Canada | CONCACAF Gold Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Guatemala score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Canada score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guatemala | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Canada | 1.3 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Guatemala vs Canada?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guatemala vs Canada?
- The Footlab AI model makes Canada the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Guatemala.
- Where and when is Guatemala vs Canada played?
- Guatemala vs Canada is played on November 14, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Q2 Stadium, in the CONCACAF Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.