Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Tony Bezzina Stadium, Paola
The Footlab model makes Floriana the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Hamrun Spartans. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Hamrun Spartans (1,622) and Floriana (1,718).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamrun Spartans have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Floriana have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Birkirkara(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Mosta(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | NSI Runavik(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | NSI Runavik(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 15, 2026 | Valletta FC(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sliema Wanderers(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Birzebbuga(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Drita(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Drita(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(away) | 1-5 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Hamrun Spartans win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Floriana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Floriana 1-4 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Hamrun Spartans 1-1 Floriana | Premier League |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Floriana 0-2 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Floriana 1-3 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| May 5, 2025 | Floriana 0-0 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Floriana 0-0 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Floriana vs Hamrun Spartans on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hamrun Spartans score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Floriana score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamrun Spartans | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Floriana | 1.5 | 1.1 | 8 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hamrun Spartans sit 9th in Premier League (0 points from 2 matches) and Floriana sit 3rd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Floriana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Hamrun Spartans | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana?
- The Footlab model makes Floriana the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Hamrun Spartans.
- Where and when is Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana played?
- Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Tony Bezzina Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.