Harksheide vs HEBC: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 10Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Kunstrasenplatz collatz+schwartz Sportpark, Norderstedt
The Footlab model makes HEBC the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Harksheide. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Harksheide vs HEBC?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Harksheide (1,706) and HEBC (1,758).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Harksheide have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; HEBC have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tus Dassendorf(home) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sasel(away) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Süderelbe(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Pinneberg(away) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | HT16(away) | 4-5 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | ETSV Hamburg(away) | 3-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HT16(home) | 0-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Concordia(away) | 2-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Niendorfer TSV(home) | 0-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Tus Dassendorf(away) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Harksheide win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 HEBC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Harksheide 2-1 HEBC | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Oct 26, 2025 | HEBC 2-1 Harksheide | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Apr 17, 2025 | HEBC 1-1 Harksheide | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Sep 3, 2024 | Harksheide 1-3 HEBC | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Mar 22, 2024 | Harksheide 0-2 HEBC | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Oct 1, 2023 | HEBC 1-1 Harksheide | Oberliga - Hamburg |
How many goals should we expect?
Harksheide score 1.6 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; HEBC score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harksheide | 1.6 | 2.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| HEBC | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Harksheide sit 11th in Oberliga - Hamburg (45 points from 34 matches) and HEBC sit 13th (38 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Harksheide | 34 | 14 | 3 | 17 | 65 | 92 | 45 |
| 13 | HEBC | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 48 | 66 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Harksheide vs HEBC?
- The Footlab model makes HEBC the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Harksheide.
- Where and when is Harksheide vs HEBC played?
- Harksheide vs HEBC is played on October 2, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Kunstrasenplatz collatz+schwartz Sportpark, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.