Paloma vs ETSV Hamburg: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 10Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:45 AM (UTC)Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz, Hamburg
The Footlab model makes ETSV Hamburg the favourite at 57%, against 20% for a draw and 23% for Paloma. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paloma vs ETSV Hamburg?
ETSV Hamburg starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (2,021 vs 1,910).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paloma have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; ETSV Hamburg have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pinneberg(home) | 2-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Victoria Hamburg(away) | 5-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 24, 2026 | HT16(away) | 3-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Türkiye(away) | 6-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | HEBC(home) | 2-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Concordia(away) | 4-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Teutonia Ottensen(home) | 2-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tus Dassendorf(away) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Buchholz(home) | 6-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Paloma win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 ETSV Hamburg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Paloma 3-2 ETSV Hamburg | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Oct 31, 2025 | ETSV Hamburg 1-1 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ETSV Hamburg 2-3 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Paloma 4-2 ETSV Hamburg | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Paloma 0-1 ETSV Hamburg | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 30, 2023 | ETSV Hamburg 3-0 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
Last archived meeting: Paloma vs ETSV Hamburg on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paloma score 2.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; ETSV Hamburg score 3.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paloma | 2.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| ETSV Hamburg | 3.6 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paloma sit 5th in Oberliga - Hamburg (61 points from 34 matches) and ETSV Hamburg sit 1st (83 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ETSV Hamburg | 34 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 126 | 27 | 83 |
| 5 | Paloma | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 84 | 50 | 61 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paloma vs ETSV Hamburg?
- The Footlab model makes ETSV Hamburg the favourite at 57%, against 20% for a draw and 23% for Paloma.
- Where and when is Paloma vs ETSV Hamburg played?
- Paloma vs ETSV Hamburg is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:45 AM (UTC) at Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.