Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Trinity Health Stadium, Hartford
The Footlab model makes Hartford Athletic the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Rhode Island. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Hartford Athletic (1,805) and Rhode Island (1,810).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hartford Athletic have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Rhode Island have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Miami FC(home) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Charlotte Independence(away) | 4-2 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Loudoun United(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monterey Bay(home) | 3-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colorado Springs(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Birmingham Legion(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Hartford Athletic win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Rhode Island win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Rhode Island 1-0 Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Hartford Athletic 0-0 Rhode Island | USL League One Cup |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Rhode Island 2-0 Hartford Athletic | US Open Cup |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Hartford Athletic 3-0 Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Rhode Island 2-2 Hartford Athletic | USL League One Cup |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Rhode Island 0-0 Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Rhode Island vs Hartford Athletic on Jul 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hartford Athletic score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rhode Island score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartford Athletic | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Rhode Island | 1.5 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hartford Athletic sit 7th in USL Championship (17 points from 11 matches) and Rhode Island sit 9th (15 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hartford Athletic | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 17 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 22 | 28 |
| 8 | Hartford Athletic | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 24 |
| 9 | Rhode Island | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island?
- The Footlab model makes Hartford Athletic the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Rhode Island.
- Where and when is Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island played?
- Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island is played on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Trinity Health Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots