Match

HEBC vs Sasel: prediction and stats

Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 13Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:45 AM (UTC)Professor-Reinmüller-Platz, Hamburg

HEBCSasel

The Footlab model makes Sasel the favourite at 44%, against 22% for a draw and 34% for HEBC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win HEBC vs Sasel?

A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate HEBC (1,758) and Sasel (1,799).

HEBC win34 %
Draw22 %
Sasel win44 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, HEBC have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Sasel have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

HEBC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 21, 2026ETSV Hamburg(away)3-2Oberliga - Hamburg
Aug 16, 2026HT16(home)0-1Oberliga - Hamburg
Jul 31, 2026Concordia(away)2-0Oberliga - Hamburg
Jul 26, 2026Niendorfer TSV(home)0-3Oberliga - Hamburg
May 15, 2026Tus Dassendorf(away)1-2Oberliga - Hamburg
Sasel
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 16, 2026Harksheide(home)3-1Oberliga - Hamburg
Aug 1, 2026Altona 93(away)2-0Oberliga - Hamburg
Jul 26, 2026Buchholz(home)0-4Oberliga - Hamburg
May 15, 2026Eimsbütteler TV(away)0-4Oberliga - Hamburg
May 10, 2026HT16(home)4-6Oberliga - Hamburg

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 HEBC win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Sasel win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 12, 2026HEBC 1-1 SaselOberliga - Hamburg
Oct 19, 2025Sasel 4-4 HEBCOberliga - Hamburg
Mar 23, 2025Sasel 3-1 HEBCOberliga - Hamburg
Oct 6, 2024HEBC 2-2 SaselOberliga - Hamburg
Feb 25, 2024HEBC 3-2 SaselOberliga - Hamburg
Sep 13, 2023Sasel 1-2 HEBCOberliga - Hamburg

Last archived meeting: HEBC vs Sasel on Apr 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

HEBC score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sasel score 2.5 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
HEBC1.51.538/1510/15
Sasel2.52.4211/1513/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

HEBC sit 13th in Oberliga - Hamburg (38 points from 34 matches) and Sasel sit 10th (50 points from 34 matches).

2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Sasel3414812918850
13HEBC3410816486638

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for HEBC vs Sasel?
The Footlab model makes Sasel the favourite at 44%, against 22% for a draw and 34% for HEBC.
Where and when is HEBC vs Sasel played?
HEBC vs Sasel is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:45 AM (UTC) at Professor-Reinmüller-Platz, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: HEBC and Sasel

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