ETSV Hamburg vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 13Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Kunstrasenplatz Mittlerer Landweg, Hamburg
The Footlab model makes ETSV Hamburg the favourite at 86%, against 9% for a draw and 5% for Vorwärts-Wacker 04. The most likely score is 4-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ETSV Hamburg vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04?
ETSV Hamburg starts as the favourite with a 299-point Elo edge (2,021 vs 1,722).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ETSV Hamburg have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Vorwärts-Wacker 04 have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | HEBC(home) | 2-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Concordia(away) | 4-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Teutonia Ottensen(home) | 2-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tus Dassendorf(away) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Buchholz(home) | 6-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | HT16(away) | 1-5 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Niendorfer TSV(home) | 2-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Paloma(away) | 2-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nikola Tesla(home) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Eimsbütteler TV(home) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 ETSV Hamburg win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Vorwärts-Wacker 04 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | ETSV Hamburg 8-0 Vorwärts-Wacker 04 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04 0-5 ETSV Hamburg | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04 1-1 ETSV Hamburg | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 31, 2024 | ETSV Hamburg 9-1 Vorwärts-Wacker 04 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
Last archived meeting: ETSV Hamburg vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ETSV Hamburg score 3.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Vorwärts-Wacker 04 score 1.5 and concede 3.1. The model gives a 89% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETSV Hamburg | 3.6 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Vorwärts-Wacker 04 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ETSV Hamburg sit 1st in Oberliga - Hamburg (83 points from 34 matches) and Vorwärts-Wacker 04 sit 14th (38 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ETSV Hamburg | 34 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 126 | 27 | 83 |
| 14 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04 | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 85 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ETSV Hamburg vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04?
- The Footlab model makes ETSV Hamburg the favourite at 86%, against 9% for a draw and 5% for Vorwärts-Wacker 04.
- Where and when is ETSV Hamburg vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 played?
- ETSV Hamburg vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 is played on October 23, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Kunstrasenplatz Mittlerer Landweg, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 89% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.