Harksheide vs Paloma: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 13Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Kunstrasenplatz collatz+schwartz Sportpark, Norderstedt
The Footlab model makes Paloma the favourite at 67%, against 17% for a draw and 16% for Harksheide. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Harksheide vs Paloma?
Paloma starts as the favourite with a 204-point Elo edge (1,910 vs 1,706).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Harksheide have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Paloma have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tus Dassendorf(home) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sasel(away) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Süderelbe(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Pinneberg(away) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | HT16(away) | 4-5 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pinneberg(home) | 2-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Victoria Hamburg(away) | 5-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 24, 2026 | HT16(away) | 3-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Türkiye(away) | 6-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Harksheide win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Paloma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | Harksheide 1-5 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Paloma 3-1 Harksheide | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Paloma 4-1 Harksheide | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Harksheide 4-5 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Apr 26, 2024 | Harksheide 1-1 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Paloma 3-1 Harksheide | Oberliga - Hamburg |
How many goals should we expect?
Harksheide score 1.6 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Paloma score 2.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harksheide | 1.6 | 2.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Paloma | 2.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Harksheide sit 11th in Oberliga - Hamburg (45 points from 34 matches) and Paloma sit 5th (61 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Paloma | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 84 | 50 | 61 |
| 11 | Harksheide | 34 | 14 | 3 | 17 | 65 | 92 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Harksheide vs Paloma?
- The Footlab model makes Paloma the favourite at 67%, against 17% for a draw and 16% for Harksheide.
- Where and when is Harksheide vs Paloma played?
- Harksheide vs Paloma is played on October 23, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Kunstrasenplatz collatz+schwartz Sportpark, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.