HEBC vs Süderelbe: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 11Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:45 AM (UTC)Professor-Reinmüller-Platz, Hamburg
The Footlab model makes Süderelbe the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for HEBC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win HEBC vs Süderelbe?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate HEBC (1,758) and Süderelbe (1,828).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, HEBC have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Süderelbe have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | ETSV Hamburg(away) | 3-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HT16(home) | 0-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Concordia(away) | 2-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Niendorfer TSV(home) | 0-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Tus Dassendorf(away) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nikola Tesla(away) | 4-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Harksheide(away) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Altona 93(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04(home) | 4-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 8, 2026 | Victoria Hamburg(away) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 HEBC win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Süderelbe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Süderelbe 1-0 HEBC | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 17, 2025 | HEBC 0-0 Süderelbe | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Mar 30, 2025 | HEBC 1-2 Süderelbe | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Süderelbe 2-3 HEBC | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Nov 26, 2023 | HEBC 1-3 Süderelbe | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 4, 2023 | Süderelbe 6-1 HEBC | Oberliga - Hamburg |
How many goals should we expect?
HEBC score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Süderelbe score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HEBC | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Süderelbe | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
HEBC sit 13th in Oberliga - Hamburg (38 points from 34 matches) and Süderelbe sit 8th (51 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Süderelbe | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 72 | 64 | 51 |
| 13 | HEBC | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 48 | 66 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for HEBC vs Süderelbe?
- The Footlab model makes Süderelbe the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for HEBC.
- Where and when is HEBC vs Süderelbe played?
- HEBC vs Süderelbe is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:45 AM (UTC) at Professor-Reinmüller-Platz, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.