Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Yanbian Longding: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center, Harbin
The Footlab model makes Yanbian Longding the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Heilongjiang Lava Spring. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Yanbian Longding?
Yanbian Longding starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,461 vs 1,338).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heilongjiang Lava Spring have 1 wins, 7 draws and 7 defeats; Yanbian Longding have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hebei Kungfu(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nanjing City(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dalian Huayi(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nantong Zhiyun(away) | 1-5 | League One |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Guangxi Hengchen(away) | 4-4 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ningbo Professional(away) | 3-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dalian Huayi(home) | 3-1 | League One |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shenzhen Juniors(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nanjing City(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Meizhou Kejia(home) | 2-1 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Yanbian Longding win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Yanbian Longding 3-0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring | League One |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2-1 Yanbian Longding | League One |
| May 26, 2025 | Yanbian Longding 3-0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring | League One |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring 0-1 Yanbian Longding | League One |
| May 4, 2024 | Yanbian Longding 3-2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring | League One |
| Oct 10, 2023 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1-1 Yanbian Longding | League One |
Last archived meeting: Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Heilongjiang Lava Spring score 1.6 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Yanbian Longding score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
| Yanbian Longding | 1.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heilongjiang Lava Spring sit 10th in League One (22 points from 20 matches) and Yanbian Longding sit 3rd (35 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Yanbian Longding | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 30 | 18 | 35 |
| 10 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 20 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 38 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Yanbian Longding?
- The Footlab model makes Yanbian Longding the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Heilongjiang Lava Spring.
- Where and when is Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Yanbian Longding played?
- Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Yanbian Longding is played on October 25, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.