Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 35Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond
The Footlab model makes Helmond Sport the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Helmond Sport (1,582) and Jong Ajax (1,529).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Helmond Sport have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Jong Ajax have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Roda(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Gemert(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 4-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Helmond Sport win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Jong Ajax win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Jong Ajax 5-1 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Helmond Sport 2-1 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Jong Ajax 1-0 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Helmond Sport 1-1 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Helmond Sport 3-1 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 27, 2023 | Jong Ajax 4-1 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport on Feb 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Helmond Sport score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Jong Ajax score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
| Jong Ajax | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Helmond Sport sit 16th in Eerste Divisie (2 points from 3 matches) and Jong Ajax sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax?
- The Footlab model makes Helmond Sport the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax played?
- Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at GS Staalwerken Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.