Emmen vs Heracles: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 35Kick-off on April 23, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen
The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Emmen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Emmen vs Heracles?
Heracles starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,792 vs 1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Emmen have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Heracles have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong Ajax(away) | 6-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Roda(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Twente(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 4-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 3-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Emmen win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Heracles win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2023 | Heracles 1-0 Emmen | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2021 | Emmen 4-1 Heracles | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2021 | Emmen 3-1 Heracles | Eredivisie |
| Jan 12, 2021 | Heracles 4-0 Emmen | Eredivisie |
| Aug 19, 2020 | Emmen 0-2 Heracles | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 19, 2020 | Emmen 1-0 Heracles | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Emmen score 1.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Heracles score 1.1 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmen | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Heracles | 1.1 | 2.5 | 1 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Emmen sit 1st in Eerste Divisie (9 points from 3 matches) and Heracles sit 4th (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emmen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 1 | Emmen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Heracles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Heracles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Emmen vs Heracles?
- The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Emmen.
- Where and when is Emmen vs Heracles played?
- Emmen vs Heracles is played on April 23, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at De Oude Meerdijk, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.