MVV vs NAC Breda: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 35Kick-off on April 23, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)De Geusselt, Maastricht
The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for MVV. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MVV vs NAC Breda?
NAC Breda starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,792 vs 1,628).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MVV have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; NAC Breda have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Volendam(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | KAA Gent II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jong Ajax(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | VVV Venlo(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | OFI(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 MVV win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 NAC Breda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2024 | NAC Breda 1-2 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 19, 2023 | MVV 1-4 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| May 27, 2023 | MVV 1-4 NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| May 23, 2023 | NAC Breda 1-0 MVV | Eredivisie |
| Mar 10, 2023 | NAC Breda 4-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2022 | MVV 3-1 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
MVV score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; NAC Breda score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 1.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| NAC Breda | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MVV sit 2nd in Eerste Divisie (9 points from 3 matches) and NAC Breda sit 7th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MVV vs NAC Breda?
- The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for MVV.
- Where and when is MVV vs NAC Breda played?
- MVV vs NAC Breda is played on April 23, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at De Geusselt, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.