Hemel Hempstead Town vs Tonbridge Angels: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Focus Community Arena, Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire
The Footlab model makes Hemel Hempstead Town the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Tonbridge Angels. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hemel Hempstead Town vs Tonbridge Angels?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Hemel Hempstead Town (1,839) and Tonbridge Angels (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hemel Hempstead Town have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Tonbridge Angels have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salisbury(away) | 2-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Maidenhead(home) | 0-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Farnborough(away) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelmsford City(home) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 1, 2026 | St Albans City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Truro City(home) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Dover(away) | 1-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torquay(home) | 1-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Braintree(away) | 4-0 | National League - South |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Eastbourne Borough(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Hemel Hempstead Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Tonbridge Angels win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Hemel Hempstead Town 1-0 Tonbridge Angels | National League - South |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Tonbridge Angels 1-3 Hemel Hempstead Town | National League - South |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Hemel Hempstead Town 2-0 Tonbridge Angels | National League - South |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Tonbridge Angels 2-0 Hemel Hempstead Town | National League - South |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Hemel Hempstead Town 2-0 Tonbridge Angels | National League - South |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Tonbridge Angels 3-3 Hemel Hempstead Town | National League - South |
Last archived meeting: Hemel Hempstead Town vs Tonbridge Angels on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hemel Hempstead Town score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tonbridge Angels score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hemel Hempstead Town | 1.1 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Tonbridge Angels | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hemel Hempstead Town sit 6th in National League - South (7 points from 4 matches) and Tonbridge Angels sit 9th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Tonbridge Angels | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Tonbridge Angels?
- The Footlab model makes Hemel Hempstead Town the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Tonbridge Angels.
- Where and when is Hemel Hempstead Town vs Tonbridge Angels played?
- Hemel Hempstead Town vs Tonbridge Angels is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Focus Community Arena, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026TorquayvsDorking Wanderers
- Sep 12, 2026BraintreevsMaidstone Utd
- Sep 12, 2026MaidenheadvsBillericay Town
- Sep 12, 2026Ebbsfleet UnitedvsSalisbury
- Sep 12, 2026Hampton & RichmondvsChelmsford City
- Sep 12, 2026Weston-super-MarevsDagenham & Redbridge
- Sep 12, 2026Truro CityvsWalton & Hersham
- Sep 12, 2026AFC TottonvsSlough Town