Heracles vs Waalwijk: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Erve Asito, Almelo
The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Waalwijk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heracles vs Waalwijk?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Heracles (1,792) and Waalwijk (1,763).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heracles have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Waalwijk have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 4-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 3-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dordrecht(home) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Vitesse(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Heracles win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Waalwijk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2025 | Heracles 3-1 Waalwijk | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Waalwijk 0-0 Heracles | Eredivisie |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Heracles 2-2 Waalwijk | Eredivisie |
| May 5, 2024 | Heracles 0-5 Waalwijk | Eredivisie |
| Jan 12, 2024 | Waalwijk 1-2 Heracles | Eredivisie |
| May 11, 2022 | Waalwijk 2-0 Heracles | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Heracles score 1.1 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Waalwijk score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles | 1.1 | 2.5 | 1 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Waalwijk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heracles sit 4th in Eerste Divisie (6 points from 2 matches) and Waalwijk sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heracles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Heracles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
- The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Waalwijk.
- Where and when is Heracles vs Waalwijk played?
- Heracles vs Waalwijk is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Erve Asito, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.