HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa: prediction and stats
Canadian Premier LeagueGroup StageKick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Wanderers Grounds, Halifax, Nova Scotia
The Footlab model makes Atlético Ottawa the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for HFX Wanderers FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,781 vs 1,662).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, HFX Wanderers FC have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Atlético Ottawa have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vancouver FC(home) | 1-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | York United(away) | 3-4 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa(away) | 1-2 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Forge(home) | 0-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 2-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cavalry FC(away) | 1-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Vancouver FC(home) | 4-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(away) | 2-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 3-3 | Canadian Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(home) | 2-1 | Canadian Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 HFX Wanderers FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Atlético Ottawa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa 2-1 HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 1, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC 1-3 Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa 1-0 HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | HFX Wanderers FC 0-1 Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Atlético Ottawa 2-0 HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| May 24, 2025 | HFX Wanderers FC 2-0 Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Atlético Ottawa vs HFX Wanderers FC on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
HFX Wanderers FC score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Ottawa score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFX Wanderers FC | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Atlético Ottawa | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
HFX Wanderers FC sit 5th in Canadian Premier League (20 points from 19 matches) and Atlético Ottawa sit 3rd (30 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 33 | 30 |
| 5 | HFX Wanderers FC | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 30 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético Ottawa the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for HFX Wanderers FC.
- Where and when is HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa played?
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Wanderers Grounds, in the Canadian Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 4, 2026Forge2-0Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 4, 2026Vancouver FC0-1HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 5, 2026Pacific FC1-2Cavalry FC
- Apr 11, 2026York United2-2HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 11, 2026Pacific FC2-3Supra du Quebec
- Apr 12, 2026Cavalry FC3-1Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 12, 2026Vancouver FC0-1Forge
- Apr 18, 2026HFX Wanderers FC2-2Pacific FC