HNK Rijeka vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
The Footlab model makes HNK Rijeka the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win HNK Rijeka vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?
HNK Rijeka starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (2,015 vs 1,890).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, HNK Rijeka have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 3-2 | HNL |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | NK Varazdin(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ilves(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Rudes(away) | 1-4 | HNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | NK Osijek(away) | 0-1 | HNL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | HNK Gorica(home) | 3-1 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Istra 1961(away) | 3-2 | HNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sturm Graz II(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 HNK Rijeka win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Mar 1, 2026 | HNK Rijeka 2-0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| Nov 30, 2025 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Sep 13, 2025 | HNK Rijeka 1-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| Apr 6, 2025 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Jan 26, 2025 | HNK Rijeka 4-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
Last archived meeting: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
HNK Rijeka score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1.3 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
HNK Rijeka sit 5th in HNL (6 points from 3 matches) and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sit 6th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for HNK Rijeka vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?
- The Footlab model makes HNK Rijeka the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- Where and when is HNK Rijeka vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb played?
- HNK Rijeka vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion HNK Rijeka, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.