NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Anđelko Herjavec, Varaždin
The Footlab model makes NK Varazdin the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for HNK Gorica. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?
NK Varazdin starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,799).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NK Varazdin have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; HNK Gorica have 4, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(away) | 1-3 | HNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(home) | 2-0 | HNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo(away) | 4-1 | HNL |
| Aug 2, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 2-1 | HNL |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FK Jablonec(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 1-2 | HNL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb(away) | 1-3 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NK Osijek(home) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 NK Varazdin win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 HNK Gorica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | NK Varazdin 1-1 HNK Gorica | HNL |
| Mar 4, 2026 | NK Varazdin 1-3 HNK Gorica | Cup |
| Jan 26, 2026 | HNK Gorica 1-2 NK Varazdin | HNL |
| Oct 19, 2025 | HNK Gorica 1-3 NK Varazdin | HNL |
| Aug 4, 2025 | NK Varazdin 1-1 HNK Gorica | HNL |
| Apr 4, 2025 | NK Varazdin 0-0 HNK Gorica | HNL |
Last archived meeting: NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
NK Varazdin score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; HNK Gorica score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Varazdin | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| HNK Gorica | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NK Varazdin sit 3rd in HNL (9 points from 4 matches) and HNK Gorica sit 10th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?
- The Footlab model makes NK Varazdin the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for HNK Gorica.
- Where and when is NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica played?
- NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.