Igea Virtus vs Gela: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Carlo Stagno d'Alcontres, Barcellona Pozzo di Gotto
The Footlab model makes Igea Virtus the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Gela. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Igea Virtus vs Gela?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Igea Virtus (1,741) and Gela (1,673).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Igea Virtus have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Gela have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Vigor Lamezia(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Messina(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Vibonese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Savoia(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Ragusa(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Gelbison(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vibonese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | CastrumFavara(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Reggina(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Nissa(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Igea Virtus win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Gela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Igea Virtus 3-0 Gela | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Gela 1-2 Igea Virtus | Serie D - Girone I |
How many goals should we expect?
Igea Virtus score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gela score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igea Virtus | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Gela | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Igea Virtus sit 7th in Serie D - Girone I (53 points from 34 matches) and Gela sit 9th (43 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 49 | 36 | 53 |
| 9 | Gela | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 41 | 44 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Igea Virtus vs Gela?
- The Footlab model makes Igea Virtus the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Gela.
- Where and when is Igea Virtus vs Gela played?
- Igea Virtus vs Gela is played on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Carlo Stagno d'Alcontres, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.