Gela vs Igea Virtus: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Vincenzo Presti, Gela
The Footlab model makes Gela the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Igea Virtus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gela vs Igea Virtus?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Gela (1,673) and Igea Virtus (1,742).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gela have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Igea Virtus have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Gelbison(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vibonese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | CastrumFavara(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Reggina(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Nissa(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Vigor Lamezia(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Messina(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Vibonese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Savoia(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Ragusa(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Gela win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Igea Virtus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Igea Virtus 3-0 Gela | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Gela 1-2 Igea Virtus | Serie D - Girone I |
How many goals should we expect?
Gela score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Igea Virtus score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gela | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Igea Virtus | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gela sit 9th in Serie D - Girone I (43 points from 34 matches) and Igea Virtus sit 7th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 49 | 36 | 53 |
| 9 | Gela | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 41 | 44 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gela vs Igea Virtus?
- The Footlab model makes Gela the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Igea Virtus.
- Where and when is Gela vs Igea Virtus played?
- Gela vs Igea Virtus is played on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Vincenzo Presti, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.