Imortal Albufeira vs Tondela: prediction and stats
Taça de PortugalRound of 128Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Albufeira, Albufeira
The Footlab model makes Tondela the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Imortal Albufeira. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Imortal Albufeira vs Tondela?
Tondela starts as the favourite with a 240-point Elo edge (1,935 vs 1,695).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Imortal Albufeira have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Tondela have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Lagoa(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | 1º Dezembro(home) | 5-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Sintrense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Vasco da Gama Vidigueira(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Imortal Albufeira score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Tondela score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imortal Albufeira | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Tondela | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Imortal Albufeira vs Tondela?
- The Footlab model makes Tondela the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Imortal Albufeira.
- Where and when is Imortal Albufeira vs Tondela played?
- Imortal Albufeira vs Tondela is played on September 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Albufeira, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.