Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 10, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Michael A. Carroll Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Indy Eleven. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Tampa Bay Rowdies starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,858 vs 1,735).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Indy Eleven have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Tampa Bay Rowdies have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sporting JAX(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 1-3 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Loudoun United(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Detroit City(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rhode Island(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 5-4 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Indy Eleven win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Tampa Bay Rowdies win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-0 Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Indy Eleven 1-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-1 Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-0 Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Indy Eleven 0-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Indy Eleven 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Indy Eleven score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Tampa Bay Rowdies score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indy Eleven | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Indy Eleven sit 6th in USL Championship (18 points from 11 matches) and Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st (28 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 28 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 20 | 44 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
- The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Indy Eleven.
- Where and when is Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies played?
- Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies is played on October 10, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots