Institute vs Glenavon FC: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 25Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Londonderry
The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Institute. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Institute vs Glenavon FC?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Institute (1,357) and Glenavon FC (1,416).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Institute have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Glenavon FC have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen's University(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ballinamallard United(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Limavady United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Armagh City(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Newry City AFC(away) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ards(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ballymena United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Institute win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Glenavon FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2023 | Glenavon FC 2-0 Institute | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 11, 2020 | Glenavon FC 2-2 Institute | Premiership |
| Dec 14, 2019 | Institute 1-4 Glenavon FC | Premiership |
| Nov 26, 2019 | Glenavon FC 3-1 Institute | Premiership |
| Dec 29, 2018 | Glenavon FC 3-3 Institute | Premiership |
| Dec 1, 2018 | Glenavon FC 3-3 Institute | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Glenavon FC vs Institute on Jul 29, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Institute score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Glenavon FC score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institute | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Glenavon FC | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Institute sit 12th in Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Glenavon FC sit 4th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Glenavon FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Institute | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 47 | 43 | 46 |
| 7 | Institute | 38 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 59 | 46 | 59 |
| 12 | Institute | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Institute vs Glenavon FC?
- The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Institute.
- Where and when is Institute vs Glenavon FC played?
- Institute vs Glenavon FC is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.