Moyola Park vs Rathfriland: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 25Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Mill Meadow, Caisleán Dhásain
The Footlab model makes Moyola Park the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Rathfriland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moyola Park vs Rathfriland?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Moyola Park (1,270) and Rathfriland (1,306).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moyola Park have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Rathfriland have 6, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Annagh United(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ballinamallard United(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dundela(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dungannon Swifts(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newington Youth(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newry City AFC(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Annagh United(away) | 2-4 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| May 1, 2026 | Knockbreda(away) | 4-0 | Premier Intermediate League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Moyola Park win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Rathfriland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Rathfriland 0-1 Moyola Park | Premier Intermediate League |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Moyola Park 2-1 Rathfriland | Premier Intermediate League |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Moyola Park 0-3 Rathfriland | Premier Intermediate League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Rathfriland 2-3 Moyola Park | Premier Intermediate League |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Moyola Park 2-1 Rathfriland | Premier Intermediate League |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Rathfriland 3-0 Moyola Park | Premier Intermediate League |
Last archived meeting: Rathfriland vs Moyola Park on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Moyola Park score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Rathfriland score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moyola Park | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Rathfriland | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moyola Park sit 11th in Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Rathfriland sit 16th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Moyola Park | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moyola Park vs Rathfriland?
- The Footlab model makes Moyola Park the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Rathfriland.
- Where and when is Moyola Park vs Rathfriland played?
- Moyola Park vs Rathfriland is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Mill Meadow, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.