Iraklis Larissa vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4Group 4 - 3Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Larissa
The Footlab model makes Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Iraklis Larissa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iraklis Larissa vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou?
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,670 vs 1,480).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iraklis Larissa have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2023 | Veria(away) | 0-3 | Super League 2 |
| Jun 10, 2023 | Makedonikos Neapolis(home) | 0-0 | Super League 2 |
| Jun 3, 2023 | Panathinaikos II(away) | 1-3 | Super League 2 |
| May 28, 2023 | Panserraikos(home) | 2-0 | Super League 2 |
| May 19, 2023 | Iraklis 1908(away) | 1-4 | Super League 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Elassona(away) | 3-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| May 14, 2026 | Panthrakikos(home) | 3-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| May 10, 2026 | Apollon Pontou(away) | 2-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| May 3, 2026 | Elassona(home) | 1-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Panthrakikos(away) | 0-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Iraklis Larissa win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2022 | Iraklis Larissa 1-0 Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Nov 21, 2021 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou 0-0 Iraklis Larissa | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 11, 2021 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou 2-0 Iraklis Larissa | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Iraklis Larissa vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou on Feb 20, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Iraklis Larissa score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iraklis Larissa | 0.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 2.2 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iraklis Larissa vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou?
- The Footlab model makes Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Iraklis Larissa.
- Where and when is Iraklis Larissa vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou played?
- Iraklis Larissa vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.