İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes İstanbulspor the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Fatih Karagümrük. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate İstanbulspor (1,821) and Fatih Karagümrük (1,868).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, İstanbulspor have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Fatih Karagümrük have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vanspor FK(away) | 2-3 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bodrum FK(home) | 2-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(away) | 0-3 | 1. Lig |
| May 1, 2026 | Adana Demirspor(home) | 8-1 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Vanspor FK(away) | 3-1 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 İstanbulspor win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Fatih Karagümrük win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 İstanbulspor | Türkiye Kupası |
| Feb 22, 2025 | İstanbulspor 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük | 1. Lig |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 İstanbulspor | 1. Lig |
| Apr 20, 2024 | İstanbulspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük | Süper Lig |
| Dec 1, 2023 | Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 İstanbulspor | Süper Lig |
| Aug 6, 2023 | İstanbulspor 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor on Dec 17, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
İstanbulspor score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| İstanbulspor | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
İstanbulspor sit 19th in 1. Lig (1 points from 3 matches) and Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
- The Footlab model makes İstanbulspor the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Fatih Karagümrük.
- Where and when is İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük played?
- İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.