Istiqlol vs Istaravshan: prediction and stats
Vysshaya LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Republican Central Stadium, Dushanbe
The Footlab AI model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 85%, against 11% for a draw and 4% for Istaravshan. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,591 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Istiqlol vs Istaravshan?
Istiqlol is a heavy favourite: 1,715 Elo points against 1,212, a 504-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Istiqlol vs Istaravshan
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Istiqlol
5-4-1- 43P. Komolafe
- 8S. Haghnazari
- 11Muhammadjon Rahimov
- 17E. Panjshanbe
- 9R. Soirov
- 55M. Safarov
- 5S. Qurbonov
- 4M. Chobanov
- 95R. Turkaj
- 33Joseph Okoro
- 1N. Stosic
Istaravshan
Not enough data to predict the Istaravshan lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 10:59 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Istiqlol have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Istaravshan have 0, 4 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Khujand(away) | 0-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Khosilot Farkhor(home) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Parvoz(away) | 4-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ravshan(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | CSKA Pomir(home) | 0-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 1-3 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Barki Tajik(home) | 1-4 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Khatlon(away) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Khujand(home) | 0-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Istiqlol wins, 1 draw, 0 Istaravshan wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Istaravshan 1-2 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Istaravshan 1-4 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 14, 2025 | Istiqlol 6-0 Istaravshan | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 14, 2024 | Istaravshan 0-2 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Istiqlol 3-1 Istaravshan | Vysshaya Liga |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Istaravshan 1-1 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
Last archived meeting: Istaravshan vs Istiqlol on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Istiqlol score 1.3 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Istaravshan score 0.8 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istiqlol | 1.3 | 0.3 | 11 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Istaravshan | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Istiqlol sit 2nd in Vysshaya Liga (37 points from 17 matches) and Istaravshan sit 12th (6 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 37 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 18 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 36 | 6 |
A question about Istiqlol vs Istaravshan?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Istiqlol vs Istaravshan?
- The Footlab AI model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 85%, against 11% for a draw and 4% for Istaravshan.
- Where and when is Istiqlol vs Istaravshan played?
- Istiqlol vs Istaravshan is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Republican Central Stadium, in the Vysshaya Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.