Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
The Footlab model makes HNK Rijeka the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Istra 1961. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka?
HNK Rijeka starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,998 vs 1,864).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Istra 1961 have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; HNK Rijeka have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(away) | 2-3 | HNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo(home) | 3-0 | HNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 2-2 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb(home) | 2-3 | HNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 3-2 | HNL |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | NK Varazdin(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ilves(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Istra 1961 win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 HNK Rijeka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | HNK Rijeka 3-2 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| May 17, 2026 | Istra 1961 0-0 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Mar 15, 2026 | HNK Rijeka 0-2 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Istra 1961 1-2 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Sep 27, 2025 | HNK Rijeka 0-0 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Istra 1961 2-0 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
Last archived meeting: HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Istra 1961 score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; HNK Rijeka score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istra 1961 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| HNK Rijeka | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Istra 1961 sit 7th in HNL (4 points from 4 matches) and HNK Rijeka sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka?
- The Footlab model makes HNK Rijeka the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Istra 1961.
- Where and when is Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka played?
- Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Aldo Drosina, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.