Izarra vs Txantrea: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Group 15 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Merkatondoa, Estella (Lizarra)
The Footlab model makes Izarra the favourite at 76%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Txantrea. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Izarra vs Txantrea?
Izarra starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,846 vs 1,727).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Izarra have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Txantrea have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Pamplona(away) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 30, 2026 | Pamplona(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 24, 2026 | Subiza(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 17, 2026 | Subiza(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 9, 2026 | Aoiz(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Cortes(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 3, 2026 | Oberena(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Izarra(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Bidezarra(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Aoiz(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Izarra win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Txantrea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Txantrea 1-2 Izarra | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Izarra 4-1 Txantrea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
How many goals should we expect?
Izarra score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Txantrea score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Izarra | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Txantrea | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Izarra sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 (61 points from 34 matches) and Txantrea sit 11th (43 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Izarra | 34 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 64 | 31 | 61 |
| 11 | Txantrea | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 52 | 67 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Izarra vs Txantrea?
- The Footlab model makes Izarra the favourite at 76%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Txantrea.
- Where and when is Izarra vs Txantrea played?
- Izarra vs Txantrea is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Merkatondoa, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.