Järfälla vs Karlberg: prediction and stats
Ettan - NorraNorra - 22Kick-off on September 17, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Järfällavallen, Järfälla
The Footlab model makes Karlberg the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Järfälla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Järfälla vs Karlberg?
Karlberg starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,631 vs 1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Järfälla have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Karlberg have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Stockholm Internazionale(away) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sollentuna(away) | 1-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | IF Karlstad(home) | 1-4 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stockholm Internazionale(home) | 0-4 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Umeå FC(away) | 3-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(home) | 0-3 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 18, 2026 | IK brage(home) | 2-0 | Svenska Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stocksund(home) | 2-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Enköping(away) | 1-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stocksund(away) | 2-0 | Ettan - Norra |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Järfälla win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Karlberg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Karlberg 1-3 Järfälla | Ettan - Norra |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Järfälla 1-1 Karlberg | Division 2 - Norra Svealand |
| May 18, 2023 | Karlberg 0-1 Järfälla | Division 2 - Norra Svealand |
| Oct 17, 2021 | Järfälla 1-3 Karlberg | Division 2 - Norra Svealand |
| Aug 14, 2021 | Karlberg 6-1 Järfälla | Division 2 - Norra Svealand |
How many goals should we expect?
Järfälla score 1.3 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Karlberg score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Järfälla | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Karlberg | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Järfälla sit 14th in Ettan - Norra (15 points from 18 matches) and Karlberg sit 8th (24 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Karlberg | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 28 | 24 |
| 14 | Järfälla | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 39 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Järfälla vs Karlberg?
- The Footlab model makes Karlberg the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Järfälla.
- Where and when is Järfälla vs Karlberg played?
- Järfälla vs Karlberg is played on September 17, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Järfällavallen, in the Ettan - Norra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.