Piteå vs Järfälla: prediction and stats
Ettan - NorraNorra - 23Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)LF Arena, Piteå
The Footlab model makes Järfälla the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Piteå. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Piteå vs Järfälla?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Piteå (1,540) and Järfälla (1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Piteå have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Järfälla have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Hammarby Talang(away) | 1-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 20, 2026 | AIK Stockholm(home) | 0-3 | Svenska Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vasalund(home) | 1-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Arlanda(away) | 0-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gefle IF(home) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Stockholm Internazionale(away) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sollentuna(away) | 1-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | IF Karlstad(home) | 1-4 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stockholm Internazionale(home) | 0-4 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Umeå FC(away) | 3-1 | Ettan - Norra |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Piteå win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Järfälla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Järfälla 1-0 Piteå | Ettan - Norra |
How many goals should we expect?
Piteå score 1.2 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Järfälla score 1.3 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piteå | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Järfälla | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Piteå sit 15th in Ettan - Norra (12 points from 18 matches) and Järfälla sit 14th (15 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Järfälla | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 39 | 15 |
| 15 | Piteå | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Piteå vs Järfälla?
- The Footlab model makes Järfälla the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Piteå.
- Where and when is Piteå vs Järfälla played?
- Piteå vs Järfälla is played on September 20, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at LF Arena, in the Ettan - Norra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.