Kagoshima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Shiranami Stadium, Kagoshima
The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Matsumoto Yamaga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagoshima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
Kagoshima United starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,814 vs 1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagoshima United have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Matsumoto Yamaga have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Albirex Niigata(away) | 4-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Renofa Yamaguchi(home) | 2-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 3-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ehime FC(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kochi United(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ventforet Kofu(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nara Club(home) | 0-2 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Kagoshima United win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | Kagoshima United 3-2 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Kagoshima United 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| May 28, 2023 | Matsumoto Yamaga 2-4 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Kagoshima United 4-2 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Mar 26, 2022 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Kagoshima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga on Nov 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kagoshima United score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagoshima United | 1.5 | 0.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagoshima United sit 4th in J3 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagoshima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
- The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Matsumoto Yamaga.
- Where and when is Kagoshima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga played?
- Kagoshima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga is played on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Shiranami Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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