Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sunpro Alwin Stadium, Matsumoto
The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Matsumoto Yamaga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
Kagoshima United starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,814 vs 1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Matsumoto Yamaga have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Kagoshima United have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ehime FC(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kochi United(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ventforet Kofu(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nara Club(home) | 0-2 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Albirex Niigata(away) | 4-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Renofa Yamaguchi(home) | 2-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 3-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Kagoshima United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | Kagoshima United 3-2 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Kagoshima United 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| May 28, 2023 | Matsumoto Yamaga 2-4 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Kagoshima United 4-2 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Mar 26, 2022 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Kagoshima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga on Nov 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Kagoshima United score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Kagoshima United | 1.5 | 0.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th in J3 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Kagoshima United sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
- The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Matsumoto Yamaga.
- Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United played?
- Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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