Kaisar vs Ordabasy: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva, Kyzylorda
The Footlab model makes Ordabasy the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Kaisar. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kaisar vs Ordabasy?
Ordabasy starts as the favourite with a 238-point Elo edge (1,742 vs 1,504).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kaisar have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Ordabasy have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Zhenys(away) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aktobe(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Zhenys(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Yelimay Semey(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kaspiy(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Altay(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Altay(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Zhetysu(away) | 4-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Kaisar win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Ordabasy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Ordabasy 2-0 Kaisar | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Kaisar 1-1 Ordabasy | Premier League |
| May 11, 2025 | Ordabasy 5-0 Kaisar | Premier League |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Kaisar 2-1 Ordabasy | Premier League |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Ordabasy 2-1 Kaisar | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2023 | Kaisar 2-3 Ordabasy | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Kaisar score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ordabasy score 2.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaisar | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Ordabasy | 2.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kaisar sit 13th in Premier League (20 points from 21 matches) and Ordabasy sit 1st (52 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 16 | 52 |
| 13 | Kaisar | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kaisar vs Ordabasy?
- The Footlab model makes Ordabasy the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Kaisar.
- Where and when is Kaisar vs Ordabasy played?
- Kaisar vs Ordabasy is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.