Karpaty vs Polessya: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ukraina, Lviv
The Footlab model makes Karpaty the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Polessya. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karpaty vs Polessya?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Karpaty (1,907) and Polessya (1,948).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karpaty have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Polessya have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bukovyna(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Veres Rivne(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Zorya Luhansk(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chornomorets(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | FC Copenhagen(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | FC Copenhagen(home) | 3-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Karpaty win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Polessya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | Polessya 3-2 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Karpaty 0-2 Polessya | Premier League |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Polessya 1-1 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Karpaty 0-3 Polessya | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Karpaty 1-3 Polessya | Premier League |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Karpaty 1-2 Polessya | Persha Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Karpaty score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Polessya score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karpaty | 2.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Polessya | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Karpaty sit 1st in Premier League (9 points from 3 matches) and Polessya sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Polessya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karpaty vs Polessya?
- The Footlab model makes Karpaty the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Polessya.
- Where and when is Karpaty vs Polessya played?
- Karpaty vs Polessya is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ukraina, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.