Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ukraina, Lviv
The Footlab model makes Karpaty the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Zorya Luhansk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Karpaty (1,906) and Zorya Luhansk (1,841).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karpaty have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Zorya Luhansk have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bukovyna(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Veres Rivne(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Skala 1911 Stryi(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Polessya(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Göztepe(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Karpaty win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Zorya Luhansk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Karpaty 1-2 Zorya Luhansk | Premier League |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Zorya Luhansk 1-0 Karpaty | Premier League |
| May 25, 2025 | Karpaty 1-3 Zorya Luhansk | Premier League |
| Dec 2, 2024 | Zorya Luhansk 2-1 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Nov 30, 2019 | Zorya Luhansk 2-0 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2019 | Karpaty 0-1 Zorya Luhansk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Karpaty score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Zorya Luhansk score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karpaty | 2.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Zorya Luhansk | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Karpaty sit 1st in Premier League (9 points from 3 matches) and Zorya Luhansk sit 3rd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Zorya Luhansk | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk?
- The Footlab model makes Karpaty the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Zorya Luhansk.
- Where and when is Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk played?
- Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ukraina, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.