Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius: prediction and stats
A LygaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 11:15 AM (UTC)S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas, Kaunas
The Footlab model makes Kauno Žalgiris the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Kauno Žalgiris (1,827) and FK Zalgiris Vilnius (1,741).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kauno Žalgiris have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; FK Zalgiris Vilnius have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | TransINVEST Vilnius(home) | 1-1 | A Lyga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hegelmann Litauen(home) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Džiugas Telšiai(home) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Banga(home) | 2-3 | A Lyga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 2-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(home) | 7-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Kauno Žalgiris win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris 0-1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| Apr 5, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0-3 Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Kauno Žalgiris 1-2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| Aug 4, 2025 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1-2 Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| May 20, 2025 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-4 Kauno Žalgiris | Cup |
| May 17, 2025 | Kauno Žalgiris 3-0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
Last archived meeting: Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kauno Žalgiris score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; FK Zalgiris Vilnius score 2.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Žalgiris | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kauno Žalgiris sit 2nd in A Lyga (38 points from 22 matches) and FK Zalgiris Vilnius sit 3rd (37 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kauno Žalgiris | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 41 | 16 | 38 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 27 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
- The Footlab model makes Kauno Žalgiris the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for FK Zalgiris Vilnius.
- Where and when is Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius played?
- Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius is played on October 24, 2026 at 11:15 AM (UTC) at S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas, in the A Lyga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.