Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa Conference LeagueLeague Stage - 4Kick-off on November 26, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas, Kaunas
The Footlab AI model makes Riga the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Kauno Žalgiris. The most likely score is 1-1. If Riga wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga?
Riga starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (2,037 vs 1,882).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kauno Žalgiris
4-1-4-1- 27G. Debeljuh
- 20A. Kalik
- 14V. Slivka
- 9L. Kreković
- 8Y. Karashima
- 15Leonardo
- 33M. Konatar
- 23A. Hernández
- 77R. Lekiatas
- 62L. Kastrati
- 55T. Švedkauskas
Riga
4-2-3-1- 10Reginaldo Ramires
- 40A. Ankrah
- 18S. Oulad M'Hand
- 22M. Diop
- 99Caio
- 8Iago Siqueira Augusto
- 5K. Wassom
- 23M. Toņiševs
- 17A. Salazar
- 34A. Černomordijs
- 12K. Pirić
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:14 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kauno Žalgiris have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Riga have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Minija(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Šiauliai(away) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(away) | 2-3 | A Lyga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Panevėžys(away) | 1-0 | A Lyga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Suduva Marijampole(home) | 5-1 | A Lyga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tukums(away) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aris(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Auda(home) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Kauno Žalgiris score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Riga score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Žalgiris | 1.7 | 1.0 | 9 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Riga | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Riga the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Kauno Žalgiris.
- Where and when is Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga played?
- Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga is played on November 26, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.