Keçiörengücü vs Fatih Karagümrük: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 30Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Aktepe Stadı, Ankara
The Footlab model makes Keçiörengücü the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Fatih Karagümrük. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Keçiörengücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Keçiörengücü (1,859) and Fatih Karagümrük (1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Keçiörengücü have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Fatih Karagümrük have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pendikspor(home) | 4-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Antalyaspor(away) | 3-4 | 1. Lig |
| May 7, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 0-1 | 1. Lig |
| May 2, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(away) | 4-1 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Keçiörengücü win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Fatih Karagümrük win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Keçiörengücü 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük | 1. Lig |
| Jul 12, 2020 | Keçiörengücü 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük | 1. Lig |
| Dec 22, 2019 | Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| Apr 29, 2017 | Keçiörengücü 2-3 Fatih Karagümrük | 2. Lig |
| Dec 17, 2016 | Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Keçiörengücü | 2. Lig |
Last archived meeting: Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü on Apr 27, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Keçiörengücü score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keçiörengücü | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Keçiörengücü sit 8th in 1. Lig (4 points from 3 matches) and Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Keçiörengücü | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Keçiörengücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
- The Footlab model makes Keçiörengücü the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Fatih Karagümrük.
- Where and when is Keçiörengücü vs Fatih Karagümrük played?
- Keçiörengücü vs Fatih Karagümrük is played on March 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Aktepe Stadı, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.