Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Fatih Karagümrük the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Keçiörengücü. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Fatih Karagümrük (1,869) and Keçiörengücü (1,859).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fatih Karagümrük have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Keçiörengücü have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pendikspor(home) | 4-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Antalyaspor(away) | 3-4 | 1. Lig |
| May 7, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 0-1 | 1. Lig |
| May 2, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(away) | 4-1 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Fatih Karagümrük win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Keçiörengücü win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Keçiörengücü 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük | 1. Lig |
| Jul 12, 2020 | Keçiörengücü 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük | 1. Lig |
| Dec 22, 2019 | Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| Apr 29, 2017 | Keçiörengücü 2-3 Fatih Karagümrük | 2. Lig |
| Dec 17, 2016 | Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Keçiörengücü | 2. Lig |
Last archived meeting: Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü on Apr 27, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Keçiörengücü score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Keçiörengücü | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th in 1. Lig (6 points from 3 matches) and Keçiörengücü sit 8th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Keçiörengücü | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü?
- The Footlab model makes Fatih Karagümrük the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Keçiörengücü.
- Where and when is Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü played?
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.