Kisvárda II vs Tarpa: prediction and stats
NB III - NortheastNortheast - 11Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC)Várkert Sportpálya, Kisvárda
The Footlab model makes Kisvárda II the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Tarpa. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kisvárda II vs Tarpa?
Kisvárda II starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,590 vs 1,440).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kisvárda II have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; Tarpa have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Füzesabony(away) | 1-0 | NB III - Northeast |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Hajdúnánás(away) | 3-2 | NB III - Northeast |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Diósgyőr II(home) | 2-2 | NB III - Northeast |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Mátészalka(home) | 1-1 | NB III - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Gödöllő(away) | 1-1 | NB III - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Emodi(away) | 1-1 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ózd Sajóvölgye(away) | 0-4 | NB III - Northeast |
| Aug 12, 2026 | DEAC(away) | 0-4 | NB III - Northeast |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Eger(home) | 1-2 | NB III - Northeast |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Füzesabony(home) | 2-1 | NB III - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Kisvárda II win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Tarpa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Tarpa 0-0 Kisvárda II | NB III - Northeast |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Kisvárda II 0-2 Tarpa | NB III - Northeast |
How many goals should we expect?
Kisvárda II score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Tarpa score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kisvárda II | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Tarpa | 1.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kisvárda II sit 5th in NB III - Northeast (8 points from 4 matches) and Tarpa sit 15th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kisvárda II | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kisvárda II vs Tarpa?
- The Footlab model makes Kisvárda II the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Tarpa.
- Where and when is Kisvárda II vs Tarpa played?
- Kisvárda II vs Tarpa is played on October 11, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC) at Várkert Sportpálya, in the NB III - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.