Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 31Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli
The Footlab model makes Erzurumspor FK the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Kocaelispor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Kocaelispor (1,857) and Erzurumspor FK (1,950).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kocaelispor have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Erzurumspor FK have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Başakşehir(away) | 0-2 | Süper Lig |
| May 17, 2026 | Antalyaspor(away) | 0-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(home) | 0-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 3, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(away) | 0-1 | Süper Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 0-4 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Amed(away) | 0-3 | Süper Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Rizespor(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kocaelispor win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Erzurumspor FK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | Kocaelispor 3-1 Erzurumspor FK | Türkiye Kupası |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Erzurumspor FK 1-1 Kocaelispor | 1. Lig |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Kocaelispor 1-0 Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Erzurumspor FK 0-0 Kocaelispor | 1. Lig |
| Oct 6, 2023 | Kocaelispor 1-1 Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
| May 1, 2022 | Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Kocaelispor | 1. Lig |
Last archived meeting: Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK on Dec 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kocaelispor score 0.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Erzurumspor FK score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | 0.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Erzurumspor FK | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kocaelispor sit 16th in Süper Lig (0 points from 1 matches) and Erzurumspor FK sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kocaelispor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Erzurumspor FK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK?
- The Footlab model makes Erzurumspor FK the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Kocaelispor.
- Where and when is Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK played?
- Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK is played on May 2, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.