Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Kasımpaşa the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Erzurumspor FK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Kasımpaşa (1,921) and Erzurumspor FK (1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kasımpaşa have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Erzurumspor FK have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Trabzonspor(home) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Samsunspor(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 0-4 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Amed(away) | 0-3 | Süper Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Rizespor(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Kasımpaşa win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Erzurumspor FK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2021 | Erzurumspor FK 0-1 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Jan 18, 2021 | Kasımpaşa 1-2 Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
| Apr 7, 2019 | Kasımpaşa 2-1 Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
| Oct 27, 2018 | Erzurumspor FK 1-1 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa on May 8, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Kasımpaşa score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Erzurumspor FK score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasımpaşa | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Erzurumspor FK | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kasımpaşa sit 7th in Süper Lig (4 points from 2 matches) and Erzurumspor FK sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | Erzurumspor FK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK?
- The Footlab model makes Kasımpaşa the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Erzurumspor FK.
- Where and when is Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK played?
- Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK is played on May 9, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.