Kristianstad vs AFC Malmo: prediction and stats
Ettan - SödraSödra - 25Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Kristianstads Fotbollsarena, Kristianstad
The Footlab model makes AFC Malmo the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Kristianstad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kristianstad vs AFC Malmo?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Kristianstad (1,517) and AFC Malmo (1,527).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kristianstad have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; AFC Malmo have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Skövde AIK(away) | 1-3 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tvååker(home) | 1-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Angelholms FF(home) | 1-0 | Ettan - Södra |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lilla Torg(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Eskilsminne(away) | 2-3 | Ettan - Södra |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lund(home) | 2-5 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Olympic(away) | 2-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Trelleborg(home) | 1-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angelholms FF(away) | 2-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Jonkopings Sodra(home) | 1-0 | Ettan - Södra |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Kristianstad win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 AFC Malmo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | AFC Malmo 2-2 Kristianstad | Ettan - Södra |
Last archived meeting: AFC Malmo vs Kristianstad on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kristianstad score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Malmo score 2.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristianstad | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| AFC Malmo | 2.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kristianstad sit 15th in Ettan - Södra (17 points from 18 matches) and AFC Malmo sit 5th (29 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AFC Malmo | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 27 | 29 |
| 15 | Kristianstad | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 29 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kristianstad vs AFC Malmo?
- The Footlab model makes AFC Malmo the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Kristianstad.
- Where and when is Kristianstad vs AFC Malmo played?
- Kristianstad vs AFC Malmo is played on October 2, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Kristianstads Fotbollsarena, in the Ettan - Södra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.