AFC Malmo vs Skövde AIK: prediction and stats
Ettan - SödraSödra - 26Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes AFC Malmo the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Skövde AIK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Malmo vs Skövde AIK?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate AFC Malmo (1,527) and Skövde AIK (1,509).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Malmo have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Skövde AIK have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lund(home) | 2-5 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Olympic(away) | 2-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Trelleborg(home) | 1-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angelholms FF(away) | 2-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Jonkopings Sodra(home) | 1-0 | Ettan - Södra |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Kristianstad(home) | 3-1 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atvidabergs FF(away) | 1-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lund(home) | 1-1 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Olympic(away) | 1-3 | Ettan - Södra |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Lund(away) | 1-2 | Ettan - Södra |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 AFC Malmo win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Skövde AIK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Skövde AIK 0-4 AFC Malmo | Ettan - Södra |
Last archived meeting: Skövde AIK vs AFC Malmo on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Malmo score 2.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Skövde AIK score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Malmo | 2.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Skövde AIK | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Malmo sit 5th in Ettan - Södra (29 points from 18 matches) and Skövde AIK sit 12th (20 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AFC Malmo | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 27 | 29 |
| 12 | Skövde AIK | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 27 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Malmo vs Skövde AIK?
- The Footlab model makes AFC Malmo the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Skövde AIK.
- Where and when is AFC Malmo vs Skövde AIK played?
- AFC Malmo vs Skövde AIK is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Ettan - Södra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.