Kuressaare vs Nõmme United: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC)Kuressaare linnastaadion, Kuressaare
The Footlab model makes Kuressaare the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Nõmme United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kuressaare vs Nõmme United?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Kuressaare (1,468) and Nõmme United (1,518).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kuressaare have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Nõmme United have 6, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tammeka(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(away) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kristiine JK(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Paide(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paide(away) | 1-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Hiiumaa(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Tammeka(home) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Kuressaare win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Nõmme United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Nõmme United 3-2 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| May 20, 2026 | Kuressaare 2-1 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Nõmme United 2-1 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Kuressaare 3-3 Nõmme United | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Kuressaare 2-1 Nõmme United | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Kuressaare 4-1 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Nõmme United vs Kuressaare on Jul 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kuressaare score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Nõmme United score 2.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Nõmme United | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kuressaare sit 9th in Meistriliiga (24 points from 24 matches) and Nõmme United sit 8th (25 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nõmme United | 24 | 8 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 58 | 25 |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kuressaare vs Nõmme United?
- The Footlab model makes Kuressaare the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Nõmme United.
- Where and when is Kuressaare vs Nõmme United played?
- Kuressaare vs Nõmme United is played on November 7, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC) at Kuressaare linnastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.