Paide vs Flora Tallinn: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC)Paide linnastaadion, Paide
The Footlab model makes Flora Tallinn the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Paide. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paide vs Flora Tallinn?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Paide (1,686) and Flora Tallinn (1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paide have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Flora Tallinn have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme United(home) | 4-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kuressaare(home) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vaprus(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kuressaare(home) | 2-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Inter Club d'Escaldes(home) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Inter Club d'Escaldes(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Paide win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Flora Tallinn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Flora Tallinn 1-2 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| May 23, 2026 | Paide 1-5 Flora Tallinn | Cup |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Paide 1-2 Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Paide 1-3 Flora Tallinn | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Paide 1-1 Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Paide 2-1 Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Flora Tallinn vs Paide on Jun 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paide score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Flora Tallinn score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paide | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Flora Tallinn | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paide sit 4th in Meistriliiga (39 points from 23 matches) and Flora Tallinn sit 3rd (42 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Flora Tallinn | 22 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 25 | 42 |
| 4 | Paide | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paide vs Flora Tallinn?
- The Footlab model makes Flora Tallinn the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Paide.
- Where and when is Paide vs Flora Tallinn played?
- Paide vs Flora Tallinn is played on November 7, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC) at Paide linnastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.