Lamia vs Thiva: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 5Group 5 - 8Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia
The Footlab model makes Lamia the favourite at 62%, against 25% for a draw and 14% for Thiva. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lamia vs Thiva?
Lamia starts as the favourite with a 218-point Elo edge (1,611 vs 1,393).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lamia have 4 wins, 9 draws and 2 defeats; Thiva have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Trikala(away) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Elassona(home) | 1-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Tilikratis(away) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Asteras Stavros(away) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Aris Filiates(home) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Agios Nikolaos(home) | 0-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Nea Ionia(away) | 0-6 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Marko(home) | 1-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Ethnikos Piraeus(home) | 1-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Ilisiakos(away) | 3-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lamia score 1.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Thiva score 0.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamia | 1.1 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Thiva | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lamia vs Thiva?
- The Footlab model makes Lamia the favourite at 62%, against 25% for a draw and 14% for Thiva.
- Where and when is Lamia vs Thiva played?
- Lamia vs Thiva is played on November 15, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.